Binary Options Trading Revolution

Morning Grains 2/22/12

Benton Pena — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 17:54:42 +0000

02/21 10:43a CST DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Feb 21
Source: USDA
For the week ending Feb 16, in thousand metric tons. Includes waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Feb 16 Feb 09 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 602.8 515.7 850.2 19,461.1 22,939.6
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Oats 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.0 1.0
Barley 2.3 1.7 0.0 127.8 98.5
Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 33.7
Corn 883.4 741.5 998.6 19,711.0 19,786.5
Sorghum 8.4 13.1 97.6 855.1 1,655.6
Soybeans 1,045.4 1,064.5 1,152.5 22,680.9 29,991.4
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 2,542.4 2,336.6 3,098.9 62,843.1 74,506.4
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what was called speculative profit taking after the rally last week and no demand news over the weekend. Better weather was seen in the Great Plains with reports of snows and rains for central and northern areas. Northern areas had been too dry. European and Russian weather is expected to moderate this week. Wheat demand could continue to increase as the US Wheat is now competitive in world markets. Russia and France prices are still reported to be higher than the US. North Africa has seen some very dry and cold weather. Some light precipitation is expected for the central Great Plains over the next week, but areas to the north should stay mostly dry. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed for the short term.
Overnight News: Light precipitation expected in the southern Great Plains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 621, 619, and 616 March, with resistance at 636, 643, and 648 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 671, 666, and 661 March, with resistance at 684, 692, and 700 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 809, 806, and 793 March, and resistance is at 824, 830, and 832 March.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were lower on what appeared to be speculative selling tied to weakness in the other grains. Traders are getting ready for the USDA Outlook Conference that should show plenty of grains available to the market in the next few years. However, that need not be true for Rice. The Texas agency in charge of water supplies for a large part of the Rice grown in the state is likely to cut back on water available for Rice production this year due to the drought. Farmers closest to Houston will be less affected, but many farmers there will not be able to grow their normal amount of acreage, if they can grow at all. Farmers in the Delta are looking at competing crops and are often deciding to add more of these crops into the mix this year. Bankers and landlords are at minimum not standing in the way of these moves by farmers. Demand remains a problem with export sales only showing a moderate pace and as domestic demand is said to be very slow. Complaints on grain quality continue to be heard as mills blend off the oldest and most damaged Rice.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in the Delta and in Texas for the next couple of days. Temperatures will average near to above normal in Texas and near to above normal in the Delta.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1378, 1371, and 1350 March, with resistance at 1398, 1408, and 1432 March.

02/22 07:19a CST DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 22
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.99 11.58 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.76 11.99 0.00
Brokens 12.73 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower as traders liquidated longs before hearing new production, supply, and demand ideas from the USDA Outlook Conference late this week. Ideas are that Corn planted area could be estimated between 94 and 95 million acres and that production could be more than 14 billion bushels and that ending stocks could be well over 1.0 billion bushels. Such outlooks would be bearish for Corn at this time, but the crop still must be planted and harvested. Crop losses in South America are still being calculated, but Brazil hopes to recover some losses later this year on potential increased Winter crop production. Argentine weather is good, but Brazil remains too hot and dry in the south and too wet in the north. The second crop is getting planted in northern areas now. Crop losses are now being reported from both countries. Some beneficial rain is forecast for southern Brazil this week. Argentina got good rains last week. Demand in the US has improved over the last couple of weeks due to lower futures a couple of weeks ago and a cheaper US Dollar, but futures probably need to work lower again to create new demand. The interior cash market is still very strong, and little farm selling is being reported. Weather will feature some rain and snow in the Midwest the rest of this week which will keep far selling interest low. Charts show that trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Basis is steady to at the Gulf of Mexico. DJ News said that japan bought 1.8 million tons of US Corn to replace lost purchases from Ukraine.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 625, 622, and 619 March, and resistance is at 635, 640, and 647 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 317, 311, and 279 March. Support is at 318, 314, and 312 March, and resistance is at 322, 329, and 334 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans Soybean Oil were higher, but Soybean Oil closed lower. Soybean Oil got support from the rally ion Crude Oil, but profit taking before the USDA Outlook Conference this week hurt Soybeans and Soybean Meal. Futures showed little reaction to the news that Greece will get the bailout funds it needs and that China would make moves to ease monetary pressures on its economy. Traders remain concerned about the size of the crops in South America. Argentine areas got some rain last week that helped crops there. Brazil is epected to see some rain in southern areas this week that could be very beneficial for crops. Sources in both Brazil and Argentina continue to estimate crop production lower than USDA. Sources in Brazil now estimate production there at about 67 million tons, and the Argentine government estimated production there at about 45 million tons. Mato Grosso is forecast to get some big rains this week that will slow the progress down a lot. Paraguay has also reported some very significant crop losses. China bought 12.5 million tons of Soybeans in the US last week, a new record purchase from the US. Basis levels are steady and sgtrong in the country. Charts show that trends are turning up in the Soy complex and that an extended rally is possible as the market has made a potentially long term bottom.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. China bought 175,000 tons of US Soybeans overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1275 and 1295 March. Support is at 1247, 1240, and 1225 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1297, and 1299 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 329.00, 327.00, and 323.00 March, and resistance is at 335.00, 337.00, and 342.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5980 March. Support is at 5340, 5310, and 5290 March, with resistance at 5450, 5500, and 5560 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday as the US Dollar moved lower. Speculators were reported to be the best buyers. Spread trading was also noted as positions get moved from March to another month. Speculative buying was noted on chart based considerations and on ideas that it is too dry in the Prairies. Crusher buying was noted as well, especially in march. Cash markets were reported strong on steady farmer selling. Traders said elevators increased offers during the day. Palm Oil was higher on Friday and again on Monday. Traders are also stressed about the delays in the deal between Greece and the rest of the EU. Some speculative buying is seen under the market due to the poor weather in South America.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 553.00, 552.00, and 547.00 March, with resistance at 563.00, 565.00, and 570.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3470 May. Support is at 3200, 3170, and 3140 May, with resistance at 3275, 3285, and 3320 May.

DAIRY
General Comments: Milk and products futures were lower, but still held support areas on the charts. Traders look for follow through selling today. Demand was good for Cheese again in the spot auctions, but Butter demand did not appear. There was more buying interest noted in Whey, but ideas are that strong Milk production will eventually take prices lower. Big supply ideas continue in response to the mild US Winter and good weather in Oceana. World supplies are reported to be high. Traders note price weakness overseas and say that US prices will need to work lower in the next few weeks to compete.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed. Support is at 1540, 1530, and 1510 March, and resistance is at 1560, 1585, and 1620 March. Trends in Cheese are mixed. Support is at 151.00, 148.00, and 145.00 March, with resistance at 154.00, 156.00, and 158.00 March. Trends in Butter are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 144.00, 141.00, and 138.00 March, and resistance is at 147.00, 150.00, and 154.00 March.

02/21 11:42a CST DJ USDA CME Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Prices – Feb 21
MADISON, WI. February 21, 2012 (REPORT
CME Group, CHICAGO, IL
Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Tuesday, February 21, 2012
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.2975 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.2925 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1133C (608) 278-4200

02/21 11:42a CST DJ USDA CME Daily Cash Cheddar Cheese Prices – Feb 21
MADISON, WI. February 21, 2012 (REPORT
CME Group, CHICAGO, IL
Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Tuesday, February 21, 2012
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.4800 : N.C.
40# BLOCKS : $1.4850 : -.0025
——————————————————————
SALES: 10 CARS 40# BLOCKS:
9 @ $1.4900, 1 @ $1.4850
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1133C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather: Precipitation moves from west to east over the next few days, then dry weather for the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and a little below normal this weekend.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

Article source: http://www.insidefutures.com/articles/article.php?id=514069

The Mindset For Success In Today’s Market

Benton Pena — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 17:54:30 +0000

The Mindset For Success In Today’s Market
Wednesday, February 22, 2012

by David Grandey of All About Trends

Given the current market climate, this is the backdrop and mindset that you MUST operate in.

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Downtrends and how to trade them
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Article source: http://www.insidefutures.com/articles/article.php?id=514136

ORCL in Early Stages of Next Advance

Benton Pena — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 17:54:19 +0000

ORCL in Early Stages of Next Advance
Wednesday, February 22, 2012

by Michael Paulenoff of MPTrader.com

Based on my intermediate work, Oracle (ORCL) ended a major bear phase at its Dec 21 low of 24.91 off of its 33.81 high from last October 27. The upmove from 24.91 to the Feb 2 high at 29.25 completed the first upmove in a major recovery rally period.

The minor pullback to the Feb 15 low at 27.90 ended the correction of the prior upmove, which if accurate means that since the Feb 15 low at 27.90 ORCL should be in the early stages of a second major recovery advance that will hurdle key Feb resistance at 29.07-29.25 on the way to 30.80-31.20 thereafter.

Only a decline that breaks 28.50 will begin to compromise the timing of the next upside acceleration, while a break of 27.90 will wreck the current set-up altogether.

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Michael Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com , a real-time diary of his trading ideas and technical chart analysis on stocks ETFs. He has been involved in the world financial markets for three decades since his graduation from the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service in 1979. Early in his career he analyzed the fundamental and technical aspects of the financial and commodity futures markets for Smith Barney, Harris Upham, and for Drexel, Burnham, Lambert. From 1988 to 1993 he was President of MJ Capital Inc., a market analysis and trading firm, which advised clients involved in the financial futures and commodity markets. In 1992-93, he co-authored The Business-One Irwin Guide to the Futures Markets (with Stanley Kroll).

Republic National Bank recruited Mike in January 1994, for the position of strategic trader, and market analyst on the bank’s trading floor, which included analysis and trading of instruments in foreign exchange, emerging markets, stock indices, and precious metals. In February 1999, Mike founded MJP Market Strategies, Inc., a financial market advisory firm, and developed www.mjpstrategies.com in October 1999. In addition, from August 2000 through August 2001, he was the chief on-air market consultant and strategist for JAGfn, a live, daily 8-hour financial market webcast and cable TV show produced by Jagnotes, Inc.

Mike has been a contributing analyst to Harry Boxer’s The Technical Trader since June 2002, and in February 2003 launched MPTrader.com. His articles and commentaries are widely distributed on sites such as MarketWatch.com, WSJ Online, Trading Markets, Optionetics, and Minyanville, where he is a contributing “professor.”

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Article source: http://www.insidefutures.com/articles/article.php?id=514147

E-Mini S&P 500: Euro bailout sprouts doubts!

Benton Pena — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 05:34:07 +0000

E-Mini SP 500: Euro bailout sprouts doubts!

The E-Mini SP 500 climbed to $1369.50 on the news that a deal had been cut for Greece to receive the $130 billion euros in bailout funds! The Euro leaders and Greece had been working on a sustainable plan for quite some time. Now that it is here and the fears of a disorderly default have receded, the outlook remains less than optimistic. It is anticipated that a recession for a few years to come may impede growth. There are still further demands that Greece cuts wages more to meet the debt obligations. Over the next three years, 150,000 more jobs must be cut and labor costs must be reduced by 15 %. To counter the dismal outlook, the Euro officials state that the Greek labor costs have increased 30 % while countries like Germany only increased 5 % over the last ten years. The marketplace seems to hang on to the idea that the Euro FX perhaps would slide further in the coming months ahead, yet the Euro Zone consumer confidence was up for the second month in a row. The Greeks protest the cuts and there is still doubt that Greece can implement the reforms over the next few years. The election in Greece to take place in April may point to a new negotiation with new government. Private bondholders were said to perhaps take larger losses of 53.5 %. Today, there were no major US economic reports due out leaving the spotlight to fall on the Euro Zone. Tomorrow, we look forward to US Existing Home Sales where analysts anticipate 4.65 million in January from December’s 4.61 million units. Total sales are expected +1.0 – +1.9 %. US earnings have 59 companies left to report. Of the 418, SP500 companies that have reported, 64 % have exceeded expectations according to Thomson Reuters data. Apple Inc. was up 1.9 % to $511.54 after winning the patent infringement suit with Android phone maker HTC Corp.

The sanctions on Iran have actually come back to bite the consumer in a sense in that the action created higher oil prices. The sanctions merely limit the amount of business that Iran can do as the banks have been blocked from the US Dollar and Euro FX. The higher prices of crude oil simply allows Iran to make more money on less product and enact less purchases to make their money. Iran still defends its right to use the nuclear energy to produce electricity and states that it has not used the enriched uranium to produce nuclear arms. Iran states that they have other clients to purchase their oil and have even invoked sanctions on British and French companies. The Euro Zone had set a six month grace period for countries to find other sources for their energy purchases. This situation has a very fragile edge to it. Once the economic outlook begins to dim for Iran quite drastically, the hopes are that NATO officials will be invited for talks. Israel on the other hand, is in a vulnerable position with Iran. It will be a matter of keeping both countries from overheating in this delicate balance. The higher oil prices will be another struggle for the US government to deal with!

On the stock side: JP Morgan Chase and Co. (JPM) was down 0.03 % to $38.46. Citigroup Inc. (C) was up 1.34 % to $33.36. Bank of America (BAC) was up 1.00 % to $8.10. Alcoa Inc. (AA) was up 2.76 % to $10.43. Boeing Co. (BA) was up 0.38 % to $75.64. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) was up 0.78 % to $114.84. General Electric Co. (GE) was up 0.67 % to $19.41. Halliburton Co. (HAL) was up 2.04 % to $37.03. Hewlett Packard Co. (HPQ) was down 1.12 % to $29.32. SPDR Select Sector Fund – Financial (XLF) was up 0.07 % to $14.80.

Wednesday, we look forward to US Existing Home Sales at 9:00 AM CST.

E-Mini SP 500 Chart.

Wednesday, what to expect! We maintain a bullish bias unless the E-Mini SP 500 penetrates $1329.00! Wednesday, we anticipate an inside to lower day! Today’s range was $1369.50 – $1355.75. The market settled at $1360.00. Our comfort zone or point of control for this market appears to be $1362.50. Our anticipated potential range for Wednesday’s trading could be $1364.50 – $1344.50.

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Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.

Article source: http://www.insidefutures.com/articles/article.php?id=513284

Corn

Benton Pena — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 05:33:58 +0000

Tuesday Evening 21 February 2012

When viewing markets, we like to “discover” something that catches attention that may lead to a trade.
Lately, it seems that grains cannot get out of their own way, and corn took another spill. One aspect
about corn is we see it as still in a bull trend on the longer time frames, but not so much on the daily,
where corn has been in a sideways trading range. That prompted a closer look at today’s activity, which
was the Tuesday day session.

One thing you can know about any market is that when it moves sideways, it is setting up for a trade
potential because eventually, price will break out of the trading range to establish, or renew, a trend.
The farther price moves along the Right Hand Side, [RHS], of a trading range, the closer it is to a resolve,
and it is for that reason, we pause to take a closer look.

Normally, we start with the higher time frames, but we are already predisposed to corn having a bullish
undercurrent during the past few months of downside correcting. What we have been waiting for is a
sign of stopping action, because that is when a trend turns, in this case, from down to sideways.

You can see where we singled out the strong move down, with a week close from 12 January. That
one day erased almost 14 days of upward effort, and sellers made a clear statement that they took over
control. Yet only three trading days later, price rallied, and that rally led to the current trading range
which started in late January, extending to present day.

In the middle of that consolidation, there is the highest volume, a red bar, indicating it was a down day.
Typically, wide range bars down, on high volume and a poor close lead to farther downside levels. Yet,
price never really followed through to the downside. For all of the effort expended by sellers, there was
very little payback, and that raises a red flag. There is nothing more to act on, but just the awareness
of that observation.

What we saw today was a wide range bar lower, second bar from the end, [we forgot to erase the
evening session, as we write]. You can see that it was wider than the previous down bar, three bars
prior, but the close was above that prior down day close. What makes that more interesting it the
failed probe lower, two bars before Tuesday’s activity. Price went under the trading range, but also
rallied back to close near the high of the day.

The failed probe gives you additionally information because it tells you there were very few sell stops
under that price level, and there were no new sellers willing to press the market down even more,
especially when it was so opportune. A lack of sellers often leads to buyers stepping in to fill the void.

Our conclusion was that if price can hold above the failed probe on Wednesday’s trade session, or go
just a little lower and then rally strongly back to the upside, buyers would be making a definitive
statement, and we should be paying attention for an opportunity to enter a trade at what could be a
“danger point,” with a reduced risk. It was then we decided to look more closely at the higher time frame
charts, as well. Why? We want to see synergy, a “story” developing. To the monthly…

You can see two wide range bars to the downside, each with poor a poor close. The closes at the low
|of the range tells us sellers were clearly in control. But look at what happens after the September sell-
off. October makes a lower low, but it closes strongly, [5th bar from the end]. Then in December, price
barely makes a lower low, [another failed probe, but because it is on a monthly chart, it carries more
significance], and again, another strong close. Corn has gone from a downtrend to a sideways trend.

Whenever you see overlapping bars, it is important because it shows buyers and sellers in balance for
a power struggle. Buyers have stopped sellers from taking price lower. While January had a lower
close as compared to December, thereby making the volume bar red, note the position of the close. It
is at the upper end of the range, edge to the buyers when sellers are supposedly in control. What does
the weekly chart show?

There are a lot of lines on the weekly chart, but an important one is the horizontal line in the middle. It
is marked, “50% retracement, low to high.” There is a line overlayed from the June 2010 low to the June
2011 high, and a half-way retracement comes in around 563. When a market can hold above the half-way
retracement level, it is a sign of strength. We did not draw it on the monthly, but both time frames are
holding above a 50% correction.

The next lines are the ones off the June 2011 and August 2011 highs, extended lower. That forms the
upper channel supply line. From the June 2011 low, we draw a line parallel to the supply channel line, and
you can see it held the October low. That low was 572.

Another recent low in corn’s down move occurred in December 2011, at 570. Here again, we see a probe
lower that fails to trigger any stops or new selling to carry price lower. Notice how small the range is at
the December low. It provides you with an important piece of information because it tells you that buyers
were taking whatever sellers had to offer, and that kept the range from extending lower. Sellers have
lost control.

We see added confirmation by two other observations. 1. The barely lower low is stopping the decline,
and 2. price failed to reach the bottom channel line and has moved more to the middle, and is now even
getting closer to the upper supply channel line. [The three arrows point the lessening of downside
progress more clearly.]

The final observation is the encircled clustering of bars and closes. It denotes the struggle previously
mentioned in the balance between buyers and sellers, and where sellers have lost downside momentum,
edge goes to the buyers. The onus is on the buyers to demonstrate an ability to change the trend, and
they appear to be doing just that.

We come back full circle to the daily chart, which started this whole analysis. You can see a story on
all three time frames, and when it happens concurrently, it is something to be heeded. An indication of
strength on Wednesday will prompt a long position for the reasons provided in our little story. [If there
is no sign of strength, there is no reason to get long, at this point.]

Not the end…

Article source: http://www.insidefutures.com/articles/article.php?id=513460

GBPUSD_Trading_the_Bank_of_England_Minutes

Benton Pena — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 05:33:47 +0000

The Bank of England Minutes presents the biggest event risk for the British Pound and the policy statement may prop up the sterling should the central bank talk down speculation for additional monetary support.

Trading the News: Bank of England Minutes

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 02/22/2012 9:30 GMT, 4:30 EST

Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD

Expected: –

Previous: –

DailyFX Forecast: –

Why Is This Event Important:

The Bank of England Minutes may spur a bullish reaction in the British Pound as we expect the central bank to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy, and the Monetary Policy Committee may endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout 2012 as the economic recovery in the U.K. gradually gathers pace. As the BoE now sees a limited risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation, we are likely to see a more balanced statement, and the MPC may look to conclude its easing cycle this year as the fundamental outlook for Britain improves.

Recent Economic Developments

The Upside

The Downside

The rise in private sector consumption paired with the rebound in household sentiment may encourage the BoE to raise its fundamental outlook for the U.K., and the development may spark another run at the 200-Day SMA (1.5917) as market participants scale back speculation for more quantitative easing. However, the BoE may hold a cautious tone for the region amid the ongoing weakness in the labor market paired with fears of a double-dip recession, and the central bank may keep the door open to expand its asset purchase program beyond GBP 325B in order to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation. In turn, the GBP/USD may continue to give back the rebound from the previous week, and we may see the exchange rate struggle to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5730-50 as market participants raise bets for additional monetary support.

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

A look at the encompassing structure of the GBPUSD sees the pair probing below the key 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from October 6th and January 13th troughs at 1.5790 with the 10-day moving average providing some interim daily support at 1.5777. This level is now our bottom limit with a break eyeing subsequent support targets at 1.5730 and the 50% Fibonacci extension at 1.5685. Daily resistance holds at the convergence of trendline resistance dating back to the October 31st high and soft resistance at 1.5880 backed by the 76.4% extension at 1.5925. Note that the slope of the daily relative strength index suggests further losses in the interim with a break below the 50-mark risking further losses for the pound.

Interim support rests with the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the February 8th and 20th crests at 1.5770, backed by 1.5750, the 50% extension at 1.5735, and the 61.8% extension at the 1.57-figure. Soft resistance holds at 1.5790 with subsequent topside targets eyed at the 23.6% Extension at 1.5815, 1.5840, and 1.5860. Should the BoE Minutes prompt a bullish reaction, look to target topside levels with a breach above our Fibonacci reference point at 1.5780 negating subsequent support targets. Such a scenario eyes initial targets at the 1.59-handle and the 2012 high at 1.5925.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Trading the given event risk is certainly not as clear cut as some of our previous trades, but a less dovish statement could pave the way for a long British Pound trade as market participants curb speculation for more QE. Therefore, if the central bank strikes a neutral tone for monetary policy and raises the outlook for the region, we will need a green, five-minute candle subsequent to the release to establish a buy entry on two-lots of GBP/USD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first objective. The second target will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade reaches its mark in order to protect our profits.

On the other hand, fears of a double-dip recession paired with the ongoing weakness within the real economy may lead the BoE to maintain a dovish outlook for monetary policy, and the central bank may see scope to expand monetary policy further in an effort to stimulate a stronger recovery. As a result, if the MPC curbs its forecast for growth and inflation, speculation for more QE is likely to weigh on the exchange, and we will implement the same strategy for a short pound-dollar trade as the long position laid out above, just in reverse.

Impact that the Bank of England Minutes has had on GBP during the last release

January 2102 Bank of England Minutes

After voting unanimously to maintain its current policy in January, the Bank of England left the door open to expand its asset purchase program in an effort to shield the U.K. economy from a ‘renewed severe downturn,’ but struck a more balanced tone for the region as central bank officials expect to see a stronger recovery in 2012. As the MPC softened its dovish outlook for monetary policy, the statement pushed the GBP/USD back above 1.5550, and the sterling continued to gain ground during the North American trade to settle at 1.5653.

— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst and Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.comor follow him on Twitter @MBForex.

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line “Distribution List” to dsong@dailyfx.com.

To be added to Michael’s email distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to mboutros@dailyfx.com

Questions? Comments? Join us in the DailyFX Forum

View the Expo Presentation on ‘Trading the News’ For Additional Resources

Article source: http://www.insidefutures.com/articles/article.php?id=513515

Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Benton Pena — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 03:04:06 +0000

By FX Empire.com

EUR/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

The EUR/USD pair has bounced yet again from the 1.30 level. It is becoming increasingly obvious that somebody somewhere doesn’t want sub-1.30 prices. The latest move was done after the newswires picked up a “rumor” that the European Central Bank was going to swap out Greek bonds that were coming due with longer dated ones. In other words – bail them out through a back door plan.

The level has seen a miraculous announcement or move almost every time it is approached, so one has to see it as a major level to overcome for the bears. The weekly candle was a hammer, and it looks as if the market wants to buy Euros overall. However, this might be more of a habitual thing than anything else. Certainly, it isn’t based upon anything closely resembling fundamentals at this point.

The 1.3250 level has been very resistive, and as such we have seen a fairly tight trading range lately. The weekly charts look calm over the last month or so, but the day to day movements have been very whippy, so trading this pair has been an aggravation to many traders. The levels are fairly straight forward in our eyes, and trading this pair for more than a scalp is going to take a breaking of the aforementioned levels.

On a break above the 1.3250 level, we are willing to buy this pair as it would shoe that it just won’t die. The daily candle that closes above that level is what we will use as our signal. A daily close sub-1.30 has us short of this market. A sub-1.29 level close has us aggressively short as it shows the last remnants of support have given way. If we get this signal, it would almost certainly have the pair falling back down to the 1.26 level where a real fight will begin.

There are a lot of analysts out there calling for the pair to reach 1.18, and some are even calling for parity. The biggest problem we see with that isn’t the fundamentals, as the Euro is highly overvalued at this point, but the simple fact that it puts up a massive fight as we try to sink lower.

EUR/USD Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Historical:

Highest: 1.5091 USD on 03 Dec 2009.

Average: 1.3709 USD over this period.

Lowest: 1.19 USD on 07 Jun 2010.

Rules:

Out of the major currency pairs the most popular and easy to trade currency pair is the EUR/USD. It has become so popular with traders these days that even when there is no visible trade to be had it is yet traded as a matter of habit. This is of course something that should be avoided and any investor who trades this currency pair wisely can do so successfully with sizable profits at the end of the day.

The first thing with trading currencies is to realize that the EUR/USD is made up of two separate currencies although considered to be one unit when taken as a pair. The weaknesses and strengths of each currency have to be taken into consideration when trading the unit as it influences the final outcome. Another factor that is often overlooked by traders or investors is that the weakening of one currency along with the strengthening of the other currency in the pair results in the generation of pips. It is according to this that entry and exit from the Forex market has to be done in order to maintain profitability.

Trading comprises of careful market studying, strategizing, planning and executing the plan in a timely manner. This is entirely different to scalping which is resorted to by many a trader on a regular basis. These traders are often clueless as to the market situation and just use this as a type of defense mechanism to compensate for the general lack of information and knowledge. The EUR/USD is a currency pair that certainly offers a lot of currencies trading opportunities if handled correctly.

Characteristics

Average broker spread: 2-3 pips
Daily range average: 90-100 pips
Best time to trade: Euro Session (0700 GMT – 1700 GMT)
some factors affecting the EUR/USD rate:

The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Federal Reserve(FED)
Dollar strength drives EUR/USD lower
FED intervention to weaken the dollar the sends EUR/USD higher

Trading the EUR/USD

Trading Experience: New and Advanced currency traders
Trading Style: Day trading and Swing trading

1) Applying Technical Analysis and/or Analyzing Fundamental News from the Euro and US zone to make EUR/USD trading decisions. Breaking strong psychological levels (1.3000, 1.2000,..) and/or surprising economic news releases can make the EUR/USD move a lot in one direction without much retracements.

2) Since the EUR/USD pair tends to be negatively correlated to the USD/CHF, it is always a good idea to compare both EUR/USD and USD/CHF charts in order to predict future moves, if USD/CHF breaks above an important resistance level and EUR/USD didn’t break support level yet, the EUR/USD is very likely to break below support level.

Analysis and Recommendation:

The EUR/USD is trading today at 1.3139 after seesawing all week, almost breaking the 1.33 mark and falling to below the 1.30 level. There was little in the way of economic data that influenced the pair. It was all on rumor, news and actions in Greece, between the off again on again deal in Greece.

Beginning the week with votes in Athens to problems between Germany and Greece, to comments and accusations hurdled between leaders. On to the ECB old bond new bond swap.. Finally ending on Friday with comments from Merkel and Monti that a deal could be in place on Monday. Today’s news now says that the ECB bond swap is scheduled for March 8. No details on any side.. just innuendo and rumors.

Good luck figuring this one out. US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/JPY Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

USD/JPY shot straight up during the week as the Bank of Japan announced that it was going to expand its bond buying program as a measure to flood the market with liquidity. The weakening of the Yen was sharp for the week, but the 80 level looms large ahead, and it is there that we think the next longer-term trade will be decided by the reaction to that level. We will not be trading this pair until the end of the week as the close will have a massive signal as to where we go next. If the market is above the 80 mark at the end of the week, we think this will become a long term buy and hold. If we close below the 80 level, or even with a hammer – we would short.

USD/JPY Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Rule:

The USD/JPY foreign currency exchange rate is the price of one U.S. dollar – the base currency – in terms of Japanese yen – the quote currency. For example, a bid/ask quote of 89.29/89.32 means that one U.S. dollar can be bought for 89.32 yen and one U.S. dollar can be sold at 89.29 yen.

If the U.S. dollar is expected to appreciate against the yen, then the above quote might rise to say, 89.73/89.76. The forex strategy in this case would be to buy USD/JPY. If, on the other hand, the U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate against the yen, then the above quote might fall to say, 88.68/88.71. The forex strategy in this case would be to sell USD/JPY.

In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.

Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.

Daily range average : 80-90 pips
Best time to trade: Asian Session (2400 GMT – 0900 GMT)
Some factors affecting the USD/JPY rate:

The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY climbed at the end of the week on positive US news causing the safe-haven yen to take significant losses. The better than expected US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index led to investor risk taking throughout the evening session. The USD/JPY hit a 3 ½ month high before hitting significant resistance close to the 79.00 level.

The Yen is trading at of this writing at 79.56. There are no significant economic reports due in Japan this week and the US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

GBP/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

The GBP/USD pair fell for most of the week, but triggered a sell signal from the shooting star printed the week before. The move will have caught a lot of sellers on the back foot, and this looks like a consolidation move waiting to happen. However, it should be noted that the candle for the Friday session is a shooting star, and at the 1.58 level. This suggests that the next move could easily be down. The breaking of the top of the candle for last week negated this idea of course, but the breaking of the bottom of the hammer from this week has the market running for much lower levels. Expect choppiness in the meantime.

GBP/USD Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Events

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Historical:

Highest: 1.681 USD on 17 Nov 2009.

Average: 1.5807 USD over this period.

Rule:

GBP/USD: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.

Characteristics

Average broker spread: 4-5 pips
Daily range average: 150-200 pips
Best time to trade: Euro Session (0700 GMT – 1700 GMT)
Some factors affecting the GBP/USD rate:

The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher

Trading the GBP/USD

Trading Experience: Expert currency traders
Trading Style: Day trading and Swing trades

How to trade?

Applying Technical Analysis and/or Analyzing Fundamental News from the UK and US zone to make GBP/USD trading decisions. Watch out for false break outs. Surprising economic news releases can make the GBP/USD move a lot in one direction without much retracement.

Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD is up at 1.5828. This past week the BoE announced an additional round of QE slightly surprising the markets. Also UK retail sales figures came in way above estimates bolstering the sterling. In the US, economic data gave strength to the recovery with a drop in unemployment claims and an increase in housing starts ( multi family ) along with other supporting reports.

Most of the week the markets ignored everything but Greece, investors jumped in and out of currencies based on rumor, innuendo, conjecture and news. The USD was up and down all week long. It will most likely continue this way in the upcoming week, with the US markets closed on Monday. Late in the week, UK GDP is expected to move the pound depending on reports and data.

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

The EUR/GBP isn’t one market that traders who are looking for excitement typically trade. It has a long history of being a slow grinder, and sudden moves aren’t all that common. They do happen, but typically it is a result of some kind of shock to the system.

The problems in Europe certainly have a detrimental effect on both currencies, and as such this pair will more than likely continue to be choppy in the near term. However, the last month has seen a very tight range that will more than likely give way to a larger move as the 100 pip range cannot continue forever. The 0.84 level has obviously been very resistive in the recent past, and the 0.83 is starting to flex its muscles as well. This cannot continue forever.

The currencies are heavily intertwined, and as a result – anything that sinks Europe will eventually sink Britain. The UK sends over 40% of its exports to the European Union, and if that area is in a massive recession, there is a real chance that the problems cause the UK massive economic headaches. Also, the British banks are highly exposed to what goes on in the EU. The debt being held in London isn’t necessarily as safe as people would want to think, and because of this – what happens across the Channel will continue to put a bit of a damper on the Pound as a whole.

However, the Euro will be hit harder by bad news, and as such this pair should continue to fall overall. The trend is most certainly down, and as a result we prefer to sell anyway. The breaking of 0.83 becomes our signal to sell, and we would like to see at least a daily close below that area in which to take that trade. If the market closes on a daily chart above 0.84, we see that the 0.85 above is even more resistive, so we wouldn’t bother going long on that move. The Euro will more than likely put up a fight form time to time, but the reality is that Europe is in trouble for some time to come.

EUR/GBP Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Events:

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Historical:

Highest: 1.2336 EUR on 29 Jun 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 1.0686 EUR on 13 Oct 2009.

Rule:

EUR/GBP: The cross tends to move in ranges, with relatively clear barriers. The narrower ranges made it somewhat harder, but it seems to return to wider ranges. The GBP is does not seem to move in response to the EUR as directly currently. The UK austerity program vs. The EU debt crisis seems to have them moving in opposing distances. They are developing new trading personalities and there is a good deal of profit to be made trading this pair. They can be volatile.

Characteristics

Average broker spread: 2-3 pips
Daily range average : 25-50 pips

What moves EUR/GBP?

The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Bank of England(BoE)
European and UK economic data
Growth differentials between the Euro zone and UK

Trading the EUR/GBP

Applying Technical Analysis and Analyzing Fundamental News from the Euro and UK zone. EUR/GBP is excellent for the beginning forex trader because it’s low volatility.

Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP is trading today at 0.8302 after peaking on Friday at 0.8333 on unexpected increases in UK retail sales. Most of the week the markets are simply trading Greece, although their was statements from the BoE this week along with the BoE inflation letter. The Bank of England announced an additional round of QE this past week

The euro sailed and dropped all week on Greece. It will most likely continue the same this week.

Towards the end of the week will be GDP reports in the UK which could cause some activity for the pound.

US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

USD/CHF continued to try and gain for the week, but still remains a bit sluggish at this point. While the candle was positive, the shape is a shooting star, and this is very bearish. The pair simply cannot seem to gain traction, but the support is holding up quite nicely as well. With this in mind, the long-term trading of this pair is a bit difficult unless you are very, very patient.

The 0.91 to 0.90 levels seem to be the supportive area, and as long as the Swiss are supporting the Euro against the Franc at 1.20, it is hard to think that the Franc will be able to appreciate significantly against any currency, especially the Dollar which has been fairly reliable lately. Because of this, we are more apt to buy this pair than sell it. The close we get to 0.91, the happier we are to pick up more Dollars. Selling isn’t a thought because this pair will move in concert with the EUR/CHF pair – and that one won’t be going down anytime soon.

USD/CHF Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CHF Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

USD/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Historical

Highest: 1.1664 CHF on 07 Jun 2010.

Average: 0.9699 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 0.7224 CHF on 09 Aug 2011.

Rules:

USD/CHF: The pair tends to break to an all-time low, then range back to the previous low. The ranges are very distinct. A break to the upside will likely meet another previous low. Pair are reliable.

Characteristics

Average broker spread: 4-5 pips
Daily range average: 120-135 pips
Best time to trade: Euro Session (0700 GMT – 1700 GMT)
Factors affecting the USD/CHF rate:

Global stability and global recovery will send USD/CHF higher
USD/CHF rallies on geopolitical instability

Trading the USD/CHF

Trading Experience: Moderate and Advanced currency traders
Trading Style: Day trading and Swing trades

How to trade?

1) Applying Technical Analysis Analyzing Fundamental News from the CHF and US zone to make USD/CHF trading decisions.

2) Since the USD/CHF pair tends to be negatively correlated to the EUR/USD, it is always a good idea to compare both EUR/USD and USD/CHF charts in order to predict future moves, if EUR/USD breaks above an important resistance level and USD/CHF didn’t break support level yet, the USD/CHF is very likely to break below support level. This also illustrates how EUR/USD tends to lead the move ahead of USD/CHF.

Analysis and Recommendations:

USD/CHF is trading at exactly .9200. There was little news to effect the Swissie this week. There has been good to excellent news in the US with unemployment claims falling and housing starts climbing. The news had little effect on the USD as the markets were all about Greece and the settlements. The USD was strong on minute and weak the next. Early in the week politicians in Athens met the new requirements of the EU and then other problems continued to develop. There was rumor and news all week moving the markets with each bit of news.

There is little news coming this week to effect the Swissie so it will continue to be all about Greece and the USD.

US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap

Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

EUR/CHF fell again during the week, but still remains lifted by the floor that the Swiss National Bank has put out in this market. The 1.20 level is the “minimum acceptable rate” according to the SNB, and as such – the market simply cannot fall. The market cannot rise either, so this is something to note as well. The Euro strength just doesn’t seem to be found in this market. The 1.24 level above continues to keep a lid on the market, and the 1.25 level above that will certainly do the same as it is a large round psychologically important number. With this in mind, we simply don’t trade this pair on the longer-term charts at the moment.

EUR/CHF Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

EUR/CHF Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Event: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

EUR/CHF Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Historical

Highest: 1.5193 CHF on 10 Oct 2009.

Average: 1.3271 CHF over this period.

Lowest: 1.026 CHF on 10 Aug 2011.

Rules:

Characteristics

Average broker spread: 3-5 pips
Daily range average: 35-48 pips

What moves:

The interest rate differential between the European Bank(ECB) and the Swiss National Bank(SNB)
Swiss and Euro zone fundamentals

Trading the EUR/CHF

News from the Euro and Swiss zone. EUR/CHF is frequently chosen for carry trades which involves going long a high-yielding currency (EURO – 3.50%) against a low-yielding one (CHF – 1.50%). Traders earn daily interest fees when holding this pair long (rollover fees).

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/CHF is trading as 1.2088 almost at the point they started the week off. The Swissie itself has been very boring this week. The duo moved all week but only in relation to the moved of the euro, which has been to the high of highs and the low of lows on new and rumors from Greece. The euro hit highs against the USD almost breaking the 1.33 level and falling below the 1.30 level all on Greece.

This week will be the same, with little data in Switzerland and the US markets closed on Monday.

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

AUD/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

The AUD/USD pair had a fairly quiet week over the last 5 sessions as the 1.08 level continues to keep a bit of a cap on this pair. The candle shape is of a doji, and this shows how tentative the markets are at the moment. The candle from the previous week was a bit of a shooting star, and this shows that perhaps the market is ready to pullback. However, we don’t necessarily want to get overly short of this pair, as it will more than likely be a pullback and not a meltdown. A sub-1.04 level print will more than likely send this pair crashing, but until then – we think a trade to the down side on a break of the lows from this past week gets us short, but we don’t expect a massive drop. A break above the 1.0850 level would have us long and aiming for the 1.10 level.

AUD/USD Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

AUD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Rule:

The Australian dollar still isn’t in its good old days, but the performance is definitely improving. Resistance lines tend to work in a smoother manner than support lines, but they also work well. The pair move well together, not much volatility, but easy to chart and easy to trade with low risk factors

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD is trading at 1.0706 over the weekend. The Aussie climbed to a weekly high of USD1.0797 on Friday on optimism over a rescue package for Greece, but gains were capped below the 1.0800 figure before a key meeting on Monday that my produce an official an agreement. This has been a crazy week for all the USD trading partners as economic data in the US was strong as well as positive data in Australia, but the market flow was controlled by Greece all week long with the euro surging and falling. Monday US markets are closed and news is expected from Greece and the EU.

The RBA surprised markets and held rates.

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

USD/CAD Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

The USD/CAD pair continued to grind around the parity level this past week as the oil markets are continuing to focus on the problems between Iran and the West. The threat of an oil disruption continues to have traders worried, and as a result the price of oil remains elevated. With this being the case, there will continue to be a bid for the Loonie, as money will flow into Canada.

The pair has several support levels below however, and as a result we are hesitant to sell it. The 1.01 level to the upside will have to be overcome for the bulls to push prices higher at this point as well. Because of this, we are currently flat in this market as it is simply too tight and choppy.

USD/CAD Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Events

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Historical:

Highest: 1.0842 CAD on 01 Nov 2009.

Average: 1.0147 CAD over this period.

Lowest: 0.9435 CAD on 26 Jul 2011.

Rule:

The Canadian Dollar moves in reaction to the US Dollar. Movements are small and easy to track and trade. The Canadian Dollar also responds to economic reports within Canada. It has little action against foreign currencies except during major moves or crisis.

The USD/CAD is the single biggest beneficiary of rising oil prices. Canada which is already the biggest exporter of oil to the US will experience a boost to its economy when oil price continue to increase. Therefore, if oil rises the Canadian dollar is likely to follow. Over the past years, the correlation between the Canadian dollar and oil prices has been approximately 81%.

Trading Ideas

1) if you believe the price of oil will keep rising, it might be a good strategy to buy the Canadian dollar because it’s 81% positive correlation to oil over the past years.

2) Since the USD/CAD pair tends to be highly correlated to oil, it might be a good idea to compare both Canadian dollar and oil charts in order to predict future moves, if for example oil breaks above an important resistance level and USD/CAD didn’t break resistance level yet, the USD/CAD is very likely to break above also. This illustrates how oil tends to lead the move ahead of USD/CAD.

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/CAD is trading at 0.9972. This pair just went along for the ride this week. Reacting to Greek news.. over the on again off again deal that has taken center stage all week, developing into an exciting new screen play, with scandals in Germany, accusations and innuendo flying from Berlin to Athens.

New players coming and going, new rumors, statements and news causing drastic reactions from investors. As the USD moved so did this pair. Ignoring improved economic data from the US and releases in Canada.

US markets are closed on Monday for the Presidents Day Holiday

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

NZD/USD Technical Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

NZD/USD has stalled recently as the 0.8350 level continues to be resistive. The last two weeks have produced shooting stars and shows just how heavy the market is starting to get. The massive move straight up hasn’t pulled back yet, and as a result it looks as if we could see that in the near future. The breaking of the 0.8230 level shows the recent range being broken, and the pullback would begin. A break of the tops of the last two candles would show more bullish momentum, and have us long.

NZD/USD Forecast for the Week of February 20, 2012, Technical Analysis

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012

Economic Events: (GMT)

Major Economic Reports due this week. Please refer to the daily reports for explaination and forecast

US Markets closed on Monday for Presidents Day Holiday

NZD/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis February 20-24, 2012, Forecast

Historical

Highest: 0.8816 USD on 31 Jul 2011.

Average: 0.7543 USD over this period.

Lowest: 0.6619 USD on 07 Jun 2010.

Rule:

NZD/USD: The recent strength of the kiwi, a currency sometimes overlooked by traders, made its moves much more predictable. This applies to support and resistance lines alike. This is a very safe pair to trade, not a great deal of volatility but predictablilty.

Analysis and Recommendation:

NZD/USD is trading on Sunday at 0.8321after opening at 0.8330. The kiwi spent the week chasing the USD, which was supported by a week of good economic reports including unemployment and CPI. But the main mover of the week was and has been Greece as the markets chased every bit of news, rumor and statement from Greece and the EU markets reacted drastically, sending the euro below the 1.30 critical point and then back up close to the 1.33. The USD moved against the euro effecting all of its trading partners. The US markets are closed on Monday so it should be a fairly quiet day, at least on volume

Strength

Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march. Merkel and Monti assure the markets.
German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since 2008 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
Philly and NY manufacturers surveys up but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
Housing starts continue to grow for multi-units (apt/condo)
NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
Australia central bank surprises with a hold on interest rates
UK announces new round of QE
Australia and NZ have positive economic reports
China reduces bank reserves
ECB deposit facility falls
Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Weakness

Greek saga never ending, ECB wants special treatment old bond new bond swap
Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
CPI rate of change a below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Economic Highlights Feb 13-17 actual v. forecast

Sovereign Bond Auction Schedule

Feb 20-24 n/a UK 0.375% 2062 I/L Gilt syndication

Feb 20 10:10 Norway Nok 3bn 4.5% May 2019 DSL

Feb 20 10:10 Slovakia Eur 0.15bn Apr 2014 Eur 0.05bn Nov 2016 bonds

Feb 21 09:30 Spain 3 6M T-bill auction

Feb 21 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 01

Feb 21 18:00 US Auctions 2Y Notes

Feb 22 10:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Feb 22 10:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Feb 22 16:30 Italy Details CTZ/BTPei on Feb 24 BOT on Feb 27

Feb 22 18:00 US Auctions 5Y Notes

Feb 23 10:10 Sweden Sek 0.75bn I/L bond auction

Feb 23 16:30 Italy Details BTP/CCTeu on Feb 28

Feb 23 18:00 US Auctions 7Y Notes

Feb 24 10:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTP

Article source: http://www.insidefutures.com/articles/article.php?id=510623

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Forex Technical and Fundamental Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012